Modelling in Natural Sciences - Design, Validation and Case Studies

Hardcover   IX, 459 p. 149 illus., 3 in color  ISBN 3540001530      £68.00

There are three rudiments to the art of modelling: intuition, a sound theoretical background and experience. Intuition is beyond the reach of any teaching. Experience may to some extent be substituted by studying existing models. Initially, the foundations for the theoretic background needed in modelling must be laid down. This book defines the wide application of the term. The basic concepts are imaging processes and the fine structure of mappings. The main emphasis is on the imaging of dynamic processes which are analysed and subdivided into their atomic constituents by means of systems analysis. The cyclic structure and the stages of models' set-up are explained. The evaluation of a model's quality is regarded as a stochastic process. The aspects of grade used in different fields of sciences are brought into perspective. Thus, a quantitative concept of validity on the basis of conditional degrees of rational belief can be developed.

Contents:

Models.- Systems.- Mappings.- Characterizing Models.- The Art of Modelling.- Inference.- Probabilities.- Tolerance.- Tests.- Validity.- Suggestions for Further Reading.- Modelling the Evolution of Galaxies.- Modern Soda Lakes.- Modelling in Palaeoanthropology.- A Mathematical Model for the Identification of Human Impacts on Floods.- Physical Modelling of a Glass Melter.- Modelling of Complexation Equilibria.- Weather Prediction by Numerical Modelling of Atmospheric Processes.- Simulation of Hydrogen Behaviour During a Severe Accident.