The world sugar market

S Gudoshnikov, J Jolly and D Spence 
Woodhead  July 2004  

Hardback  336 pages  ISBN 9781855734722      £155.00
Since the first book published by Woodhead on the global sugar business (The international sugar trade) was released in 1996, the world sugar market has undergone fundamental change. Over the past decade the industry's key economic and policy drivers have created a new regional distribution of sugar production that has had an enormous impact on the price finding process as well as changing the type of sugar on offer to the world market. Brazil has become a dominant supplier whilst Cuba's production has collapsed to the pre World War One level; Russia has become the world's greatest importer and structural surpluses have seen stocks rise to historic highs and the world price fall to a level below the production costs of some of the most competitive exporters.

The world sugar market focuses on these changes by identifying, describing and assessing the key industry drivers and their future potential impact on the market. Part 1 provides an overview covering the history of sugar production and consumption, cultivation of beet and cane and the current state of the market for sugar and alternative sweeteners. Part 2 focuses on identifying, describing and assessing the key market drivers, both economic and political, on sugar demand. Part is devoted to a similar analysis of sugar supply, whilst Part 4 covers the future for the sugar markets.

The world sugar market is aimed at a wide audience from the sugar specialist looking for in-depth information on a specific topic to the newcomer needing to gain an overview of the current state-of-play and future for the world sugar market. The book is published in collaboration with the International Sugar Organization whose statistics and studies are used extensively throughout.

History and cultivation
- History: Production, Consumption, Trade
- Cultivation: Cane, Beet, Processing, Refining

The world sugar economy today
- Demand
- Price dynamics
- Supply
- Political environment

World sugar prices
- Long-term trend: Exchange rates and world market prices, White sugar prices
- Volatility: 'Golden era' for sugar prices: 1988-97, Prices crashed in 1998, Conclusions: volatility and average prices
- Booms and busts
- Prices and the stocks to consumption ratio
- Investigating sugar price seasonality: 1980-2000: What is seasonality?, How likely is seasonality in the world sugar market?, Identifying seasonality; Exploratory data analysis, X-11 US Census Method II
- Conclusion

Futures markets
- History
- Current contracts: The London Daily Price, Contract specifications, Options, The New York market, Other markets
- Options
- Uses of the futures markets: Hedging, Arbitrage, Aas and Eos, Speculation
- Forecasting techniques
- Regulation

Alternative sweeteners
- Natural sweeteners: HFS/Isoglucose, Trehalose, Sucralose
- Manufactured sweeteners: Saccharine, Aspartame, Acesulfame-K, Cyclamates, Others, Prospects
- Outlook


- An historical perspective
- Regional consumption drivers
- Drivers of alternative sweeteners: Regional variations
- Conclusions and outlook

Import demand
- Key features
- Regional dynamics: Preferential trading arrangements, Raw vs
- whites: dynamics
- Dynamics of pivotal players: Pivotal players in raw sugar imports; Russia, United States, European Union, Other players
- Toll refiners, Pivotal players in white sugar imports
- Drivers for the future: China: a pivotal player for the future?
- Conclusions

PART 3: Supply

Sugar production
- Low supply response to world price
- Weather: a key short-term production driver
- Long-term trends in sugar production
- Cost of production of sugar
- Conclusions and outlook

- Concentration of exports and special role of Brazil
- White, raw and crystal sugar
- How important is the world market for exporters? Preferential exports: EU preferential sugar trade schemes; The ACP Sugar Protocol, Most Favoured Nation (MFN) arrangements, Special Preferential Sugar, Everything-but -Arms (EBA) Initiative, Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA)
- US preferential sugar imports; The Tariff Rate Quota, North American Free Trade Agreement, Central American Free Trade Agreement
- Conclusions


Government policy
- The Uruguay Round experience relating to sugar: Recent trade reform
- Multilateral reform under the WTO Doha Round: Status of the Doha Round negotiations on agriculture, The major players and sugar policy reform, expectations, How might sugar trade reform and liberalization drive the world sugar market? Expectations for sugar
- Unilateral reform pressures: United States: pressure from NAFTA and a common US-Mexico sweetener market; Summary of US sugar policy, The Sugar Loan Program, Marketing allotments: new tool, The Tariff Rate Quota, Pressures on US sugar policy: increased market access through WTO, negotiations on agriculture, NAFTA and Mexico's exportable surplus: implications for US sugar policy, The NAFTA 'one market': unfettered access?, US sugar policy and other regional trade agreements, Conclusion: US sugar policy
- European Union: pressures for reform are growing: EU sugar policy: summary, Pressures for reform: internal policy review, The 'everything-but-arms' initiative: implications for EU sugar policy and market, ACP producers and EU sugar policy reform, Further pressure for reform arises from proposed Economic
- Partnership: Agreements EU enlargement, Brazil, Australia and Thailand challenge EU sugar policy, Conclusion: EU sugar policy reform
- Unilateral reform in other key players
- Regional Trade Agreements: Background to Regional Trade Agreements, Types of Regional Trade Agreements, Key Regional Trade Agreements and sugar, Key features of trade pacts related to sugar, Effectiveness of RTAs in promoting sugar trade, Future Regional Trade Agreements, Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), The EU and RTAs, RTAs and sugar: building blocks or stumbling blocks?
- Conclusions

Sugar crops for biofuels and other emerging drivers
- Gene technologies to drive cost competition
- Environment policy
- Sugar crops for biofuels
- Commercial viability: Condition 1: opportunity cost; Ethanol vs
- sugar
- Condition 2: ethanol production vs
- gasoline prices; Ethanol production costs, Feedstock costs, Oher costs, Production cost estimates, Maximum ethanol selling price driven by gasoline price, The oil price: long-term outlook is critical, Other cost issues
- Condition 3: government support; Brazil, United States, European Union, Fledgling schem, Other issues impacting commercial feasibility, Market acceptance, Optimisation of co-products, Optimal use of vinasse, Availability of imported ethanol
- Fuel ethanol programmes: state of play: European Union: Directives to boost biofuels; United States: proposed Renewable Fuels Standard and MTBE phase-out, Fledgling biofuel schemes, India: E-5 to be sold countrywide in first phase, Thailand: eight ethanol projects approved but implementation is slow, Australia: a viable fuel ethanol industry sought by cane industry, Central America, Asia, Others
- Implications for sugar: Brazil's ethanol market outlook critical to sugar market, EU biofuels, The US RFS
- Conclusions

Prospects in major exporters and importers
- Australia, Brazil, China, Cuba, European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Thailand, USA.

World market perspectives
- Low world prices - the main characteristic of the current market
- Developing a market view to 2010: World consumption growth and its geographical focus, Can production capacity restrain consumption growth?, Expectations regarding pace and extent of sugar policy reform, Brazil's potential to expand sugar production and exports, Ethanol programmes - impacting cane supply for sugar before 2010?
- Overall view of the market to 2010 and beyond
- Annex: what others are saying: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, OECD, FAPRI (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute), FAO, Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model, Why the differences in model based projections?, How should projections be interpreted?



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